COVID Variant Squeeze Plays: ISPC Nearing $30 Just Like LGVN. AHPI And GOVX Are Two Other Strong COVID Squeeze Candidates

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A few days ago I brought up iSpecimen Inc. (ISPC) as a potential twin play to Longeveron Inc. (LGVN) which has risen from $3 to as high as $45 in the matter of a few days and closed at $30.67 on Friday. ISPC has continued to closely follow the LGVN pattern as it rose 72% to $17.51 but hit a high of $24.67 on Friday and closed up after hours. It looks well on its way to hitting $30 just like LGVN did. With the threat of a new COVID variant spreading, traders are looking for small cap COVID plays and ISPC fits the bill perfectly. Another two COVID squeeze plays are GeoVax Labs, Inc. (GOVX) and Allied Healthcare Products, Inc. (AHPI). 

ISPC, GOVX and AHPI each covers a different aspect of fighting COVID-19. According to Finviz, all three were in the top 20 biggest gainers on Friday, with ISPC and AHPI taking spots #1 and #2 and GOVX #15:

ISPC: It was the top gainer on Friday and first shot up after announcing that it was Selected by U.S. Government and Private Researchers to Supply Critical Human Biospecimens for Advanced Phase of COVID-19 Research. The stock is reacting positively for obvious reasons, beyond just the tight float and potential for a squeeze. With a rise in a new variant, ISPC will likely see another uptick in demand for its COVID biospecimens. Particularly since the government and society at large will be very interested to know if and how fast the Omicron variant has spread beyond southern Africa, as well as how the variant reacts to vaccinated versus unvaccinated people. ISPC is ideally and uniquely positioned not only as a LGVN squeeze twin, but as a COVID play. Keep in mind that there are multiple vaccine plays available to invest in and trade but not too many that collects specimens like ISPC. 

GOVX: It rose 21% on 8.9 million volume on Friday. GeoVax is working on a universal vaccine good for variants. This is particularly important as worries of the Omicron variant spreading rises. The MRNA vaccines were designed to encode the prefusion stabilized spike protein with the goal of inducing high levels of neutralizing antibodies. But this can leave them susceptible to variants that partially escape neutralization by vaccine induced antibodies. GeoVax's vaccine technology platform is known to induce a balanced humoral (antibody) and cellular (T-cells) response against the multiple encoded immunogens, potentially limiting immune escape against emerging variants. As long as society relies on the MRNA vaccines, it will always be chasing variants and people will be in need of boosters. GeoVax, if successful in developing a vaccine based on its technology, will eliminate that need. Right now it's still in the early stages, but most traditional vaccines that take years to develop would be in early stages right now for COVID-19. 

GOVX has a unique position of being a "MAGA vaccine" in that the CEO David Dodd has said that he believes in people making personal health decisions, rather than the usual biotech CEO who would say to get the vaccine right away in order to sell their vaccines. He is frequently on right wing news media outlets like Newsmax as a vaccine expert and is a Republican. I talk about this in more detail in this post. Why would this be important? Most unvaccinated people in the U.S. lean towards conservative or GOP beliefs. With how fractured the United States is politically, if someone represents "team GOP" and has developed a vaccine that is deemed to be done in a more traditional way, they will be much more likely to convince Republicans to take it. Other vaccine candidates led by companies without stark political leanings don't have such a market. They are up against MRNA booster shots. GeoVax's vaccine could have a very distinct and unique untapped market, assuming the company is successful in proving efficacy during later-stage trials and gets FDA approval. Currently unvaccinated people will wait for the GeoVax vaccine if they trust that the company is making the right one for them. And CEO David Dodd is already out there building that trust in the media. 

AHPI: It rose 55% on Friday as it's a producer of ventilators and other medical equipment. As the potential impact of Omicron is unknown, there could be a substantial rejuvenation of demand for AHPI's products as governments and hospitals prepare for a potential spike in serious COVID cases. This one is rather well known as a COVID play so there is not much more to say. AHPI ran to $45 from $3 in a couple of days on the initial COVID scare, so massive potential remains.

ISPC can be considered LGVN's twin because both of them were recent IPOs in the health care space over the past year, plus they have very similar floats. AHPI and GOVX are also quite comparable as health care microcap stocks with small floats:

All three of ISPC, AHPI and GOVX sit at just a small fraction of LGVN's market cap. I think all of these COVID plays are better deals right now because the recent news developments relate to immediate revenue-generating activities, at least for ISPC and AHPI. While GOVX is in a speculative startup phase like LGVN, any positive developments that are made for GOVX's vaccine candidate should send the stock flying. Based on relative market caps to LGVN and better revenue generating potential in the near term, never mind $30, these stocks could hit $100. For instance, for ISPC to hit LGVN's $586 million market cap, it would have to go up to $84. And both AHPI and GOVX have less shares outstanding than ISPC.

Finally, let's review the trading pattern of LGVN and ISPC since they broke out. LGVN broke out on November 18th and Friday was its 6th day post-breakout. ISPC broke out on November 22 and Friday was its 4th day post-breakout.  

Day one:

On November 18, LGVN opened at $3.72, hit a high of $8.90 but actually performed quite weak in afternoon trading and closed at $6.87, up 135% on the day. However, in the after hours market, the stock shot up to over $10.

On November 22, ISPC opened at $11.39, hit a high of $12.77 but also performed weak in the afternoon, dropping to $8.88 and closing up 80% on the day. However, in after hours trading, it shot up over $15.

On both of those days, shorts, trolls and other people who think they are smarter than they really are talked non-stop about equity offerings. Neither stock announced an equity offering so far and the results show in the stock price performances since. 

Day two:

On November 19, LGVN opened at $11.81, a 72% spike from the previous day's close. It hit a high of $14.75 but ended up selling off the rest of the day to close at $10.03

On November 23, ISPC opened at $16.84, a 90% spike from the previous day's close. It hit a high of $18.50 but pulled back as low as $11.20 before rebounding to close at $13.19. 

Again both very similar with spikes in the morning but a sell off during the day.

Day three: 

On November 22, LGVN opened down at $8.71, but saw continuous buying throughout the day to close at $28.20, up 181% and crushing shorts. 

On November 24, ISPC opened at similarly weak at $9.73, but didn't go on a run like LGVN did, finishing at $10.20. However, in the after hours market it hit over $15 before closing in the $12's.

Day four:

On November 23, LGVN has a pretty quiet day, opening at $23.18 and continuing to sell off during the day down to $17.22

On November 26, ISPC finally had that breakout that happened a day after LGVN's breakout. It opened at $18.21, hit a high $24.67 before selling off to end the shortened trading day at $17.51. Though after hours saw more buying back up over $19, an encouraging sign for Monday. 

Day five:

On November 24, LGVN reversed the previous day's weakening trend to blast off 146% to $42.30. It saw constant buying throughout the day from its $18.13 open. 

Is ISPC headed to $30 as well? So far both LGVN and ISPC have been trading very similarly, though ISPC seems to be about a day behind. It is due for one of those massive runs that LGVN has had, where buying throughout the day more than doubles the price in intraday trading. They both have similar floats, are recent healthcare IPOs and have had great news recently. ISPC has the advantage of generating operating revenues right now while LGVN's revenues have been from grants and clinical trials. ISPC's current news creates expectations that it will have good revenue growth right now, while LGVN's revenues will come in the future assuming successful clinical trials and FDA approval of a marketable drug. 

Disclosure: I am long ISPC, GOVX, AHPI.